UFC 136 Predictions

It's fight week and we have UFC 136 this weekend only two weeks after 135.  And how did I do on my predictions for 135?  Well, to be frank, not so well in my opinion.  I was great on the under card with 4-1, but I shit the bed on the main card with a 2-3 record.  That puts me at 6-4 for the entire event.

Andy's grade for UFC 135:    D

Let's see if I can't redeem myself for UFC 136.  Like last time, I'll be adding explanations of my picks for the main card only, and just giving you my picks for the under card.  So, let's get this party started!

Main Card

Main Event

(LW Championship) Champion Frankie "The Answer" Edgar vs. Gray Maynard

A possible fourth fight for a rubber match?  This is by far one of the toughest fights for me to call.  Gray Maynard stands undefeated at 10-0-1 (1 NC) while Edgar has only one blemish on his 13-1-1 record.  That lone loss comes from Maynard's unanimous decision win over Edgar back in 2008 on a free UFC Fight Night card on SpikeTV.  Side Note:  That was also the night we saw James Irvin's 8-second KO of Houston Alexander which positively blew my mind.

Three and a half years and one more controversial fight between the two later, and we have a rematch of the title fight that ended in a draw last time.  I've heard people criticize Maynard for putting up a lot of lackluster decision wins.  Eight of his ten wins have come via decision but many of Edgar's wins have also come via decision.  That didn't stop the last fight from being exciting as all hell.

I feel that both fighters aren't going to make the same mistakes they made in the last title fight, so all that remains to me is the question of what changes should they make for this time around?  For me, I think the biggest key will be aggressiveness.  The fighter that is able to keep the pressure and push the pace wins this fight by decision.  That's right, I said decision.  Even though Maynard almost stopped Edgar in the first round, you'll notice Edgar rallied back and got the draw.

What about Maynard's wrestling ability?  Edgar was prepared for it last time, and Edgar is one tough son of a bitch to take down.  He always pops right back up.  Wrestling is something Edgar had prepared for.  He hadn't prepared for Maynard's right hook that floored him.

Things will be different this time.  Edgar will take nothing for granted, and Maynard is going to have a hell of a fight on his hands, but he seems to always come up with something that catches Edgar off-guard.  Almost like Maynard has Edgar's number...... Almost.   This fight ends in another VERY VERY close split decision win.  And I do believe we'll get an actual winner this time.

Andy's pick: 

Co-Main Event

(FW Championship) Champion José Aldo vs. Kenny "KenFlo" Florian

We all know Kenny Florian as the Middleweight runner-up on The Ultimate Fighter season 1.  Losing to Diego Sanchez (back when he really WAS "the Nightmare") was nothing to be ashamed of, and Kenny almost immediately dropped two weight classes to Lightweight since losing the show.  From then on, he literally fought almost everyone in the Lightweight division.  Now having dropped to Featherweight and having only one fight to his credit in this weight class, he gets a chance to take on a man whose literally taken the WEC and UFC by storm.

With a record of 19-1, Aldo's 12 (T)KO wins tell a tale of extreme violence.  At WEC 44, Aldo took the belt from Mike Thomas Brown and hasn't slowed a minute since.  His first defense would come against perennial contender Urijah Faber.  For anyone who saw this fight, you had to be wincing in pain every time Aldo threw that leg kick from the second round on.  By the third round, Faber seemed to be having trouble just standing.  I was amazed to see Faber even answer the bell by the fifth.  Here was some amazing proof that leg kicks absolutely do count in a fight.  (F--- you, Cecil Peoples!)

Now there has apparently been a video released online, either for the hype surrounding this fight or for some other reason, that shows Aldo complaining about cutting weight to 145 lbs. to make fighting weight.  The video apparently shows him being resistant to re-entering a bath tub filled with a special salt solution (or something) that aids in the weight cutting process but also gives your body the feeling that your skin is burning.

I have heard people say that this is proof that the weight cut is too much for Aldo, whose said himself that he'll eventually not want to cut weight to Featherweight in the future, and that this process of weight cutting will cause him to slow down or make him feel too dehydrated.  However, I've heard it takes Kenny a long time to cut weight properly also and the weight cut hasn't affected Aldo's capacity for dealing insane violence yet, so I'll reserve judgement on the weight cutting implications until I've seen Aldo look bad in a fight.

What does all of this mean for the Aldo/Florian matchup?  Not a whole hell of a lot.  Florian always comes to fight with some slick Brazilian Jiu-jitsu and improving stand up game and Aldo's been on top of his game for quite a while in the Featherweight division with an aggressive attack style that seems to put everyone on their heels.

Florian's best chance is to get Aldo on his back and do what he does best, ground and pound with those sharp ass elbows.  Maybe he can cut Aldo and get the stoppage, maybe he can pull off a slick submission, but Aldo has a black belt in BJJ as well.

I like Florian, but he's the kind of fighter who loses only to the top guys.  Gray Maynard, B.J. Penn, and Sean Sherk are all guys who've beat Florian in the past.  And come this weekend, I believe we'll be able to add Aldo to this list.  Aldo either by (T)KO in the championship rounds, or by unanimous decision.

Andy's pick:  

(MW Bout) Chael Sonnen vs. Brian Stann

Did you know that Chael Sonnen was an NCAA Division I wrestler?  Did you know that Sonnen was also an Olympic alternate for the U.S. in wrestling?  Of course not!  All anyone knows of Chael Sonnen is that he's an Oregonian politician who was involved in a money laundering real estate mortgage fraud scam that runs his mouth about  everyone and who literally dominated Anderson Silva for 24 minutes before getting caught in a triangle choke in the last minute.

Brian Stann has reinvented his career since dropping from Light Heavyweight to Middleweight and has taken on the moniker of "the All-American" most likely due to his military service career in the Marine Corps.  With a background of submission wrestling, Brazilian Jiu-jitsu, and American Kickboxing to his credit, Stann now fights for Greg Jackson's camp.

In my last blog, I mentioned that I believe this fight should be a fight that has serious title shot implications.  I believe the winner of this match is in a much better position to ask for a title shot with Anderson Silva than the Miller/Bisping matchup.  Dana, however, told the press that if Dan Henderson wins his fight against Shogun Rua that he'd consider Dan Henderson a front runner for a title shot further proving that I clearly have no gift for setting up title fight matchups.  This makes no sense to me considering Dan Henderson is fighting at Light Heavyweight right now.  Fuck Dana, you kill me with all this shit sometimes, but I digress.

Sonnen will do what Sonnen does... try to outwrestle Brian Stann.  I believe this will not work out for him against Stann as it did for him against Anderson Silva.  Stann will either use his wrestling defensively to keep this fight standing up and hoping his Kickboxing sees him through, or will try to use his BJJ to submit Sonnen.  In any case, I'm going to go with Stann on this matchup as I see his momentum and time with the Jackson training camps paying off to a decision win.

Andy's pick: 

(LW bout) Joe "J-Lau" Lauzon vs. Melvin "the Young Assassin" Guillard

Simply put, Melvin Guillard has been on an absolute tear recently.  But Joe Lauzon is a submission specialist and almost all of Guillard's losses have come via submission.  I'll be rooting for Guillard in this fight, but I don't think even Greg Jackson's training will be able to help Guillard if "J-Lau" weathers the storm, gets in close, and gets the fight to the ground.  Classic grappler vs. striker fight and I think recently it seems that the grapplers win these matchups.

Andy's pick:

(FW Bout)  Leonard Garcia vs. Nam Phan

If you're not familiar with who Leonard Garcia is, please do yourself a favor and watch this kid's WEC fights online somewhere.  I've been watching this kid fight since his loss to Roger Huerta in 2007.  Since then, I can't recall a single fight with Leonard Garcia where I thought, "Well, this was boring".  In his last five fights, Garcia has picked up three Fight of the Night bonuses.  One of those bonuses came against his current opponent Nam Phan on The Ultimate Fighter finale almost a year ago.

Nam Phan, on paper, should have this fight hands down.  A black belt in Karate and in BJJ, Phan seems to have the upper hand in this matchup.  And although I haven't seen many of Nam Phan's fights, he has lost to Garcia's relentless attack style before.

To date, Garcia has recently lost to ex-champion Mike Thomas Brown, and title contenders Manny Gamburyan and Mark Hominick as well as a man known as "The Korean Zombie" in another Fight of the Night exciting matchup.  Phan, however, has lost to virtually anyone whose "known" in the fight game.  Michihiro Omigawa, Josh Thomson, Gesias "JZ Calvan" Cavalcante, Billy Evangelista, Mike Thomas Brown, and even Leonard Garcia himself have all gotten wins against Phan.

What does all this mean?  Phan has the tools and the skills to win a lot of fights and could conceivably be a great fighter except he's already 28 years old and, like Jorge Gurgel, he doesn't seem to be able to transition his very notable skills into actual fighting.  I see this fight going a lot like the first.  Phan will put up a fight, but Garcia comes to put it in Phan's face once again.  I think Garcia wins this by decision again.  I just hope it's as exciting as their last fight together.

Andy's pick:


Preliminary Card

(MW Bout) Demian Maia vs. Jorge Santiago

Andy's pick:  Demian Maia

(LW Bout)  Anthony Pettis vs. Jeremy Stephens

Andy's pick:  Anthony Pettis

(HW Bout) Joey Beltran vs. Stipe Miocic

<sup>Andy's pick:  Joey Beltran

(FW Bout) Zhang Tie Quan vs. Darren Elkins

Andy's pick:  Zhang Tie Quan

(MW Bout) Aaron Simpson vs. Eric Schafer

Andy's pick:  Aaron Simpson

(MW Bout) Steve Cantwell vs. Mike Massenzio

Andy's pick:  Steve Cantwell</sup> 

So, that's it!  Another set of predictions for this week's UFC 136 show.  I hope I do a lot better this week than I did two weeks ago.  As always, please feel free to comment on my picks and why you think I am right or wrong.  I enjoy writing these things and I hope you enjoy reading them. 

^--Andy