UFC 140 predictions

Hello.... I've missed a number of UFC events since my last prediction post but I'm going to bring it back with one of the cards I've been truly excited for since I thought GSP and Nick Diaz were going to fight.  So let's get right into it.  My last prediction card was UFC 136.  And how did I do there?  Well, I went 5-6 for the night. 

Andy's grade for UFC 136:  D-

Well, clearly I suck at predicting fights.  Or, maybe it's just proof that anyone can win on any given night. (I like that excuse a lot more than me just sucking at picking fights. )  But, let's continue on with predictions anyway.

Main Card

Main Event

(LHW Championship) Champion Jon "Bones" Jones vs. Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida

What can I say about this fight?  This is a complete win/win for me.  I've been a Machida fan since I saw him fight Sam Hoger at UFC 67 and I've been a Jon Jones fan since I saw him beat Stephan Bonnar at UFC 94.  If I could pick any one person in the UFC light-heavyweight division that I'd like to see beat Jon Jones, it's Lyoto Machida.  However there's something about Jon Jones and his ability to embarass everyone, even Shogun, that makes me want to see Jones never lose.  Machida is a great fighter but Jones has this athleticism that seems no one has an answer for.

Machida is more of a counter-puncher while Jones can be both aggressive and be a counter-puncher.  This will make for one hell of a fight, but a fight I don't see Machida winning.  Jones needs to be put on his heels.  He needs to have his rhythm interrupted, you can't let Jones set the pace by being super aggressive.  Sadly, that is not how Machida fights.  Could he beat Jones?  I believe so if he fought completely different from how he fights now.  Will he do that?  I don't believe so at all.  Jones wins this in convincing fashion sometime in the first three rounds.  I don't think we'll see this go into the championship rounds at all.

Jon Jones

Andy's pick: 

(HW Bout)  Frank Mir vs. Antônio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira (Big Nog)

Don't let casual MMA fans fool you.  Frank Mir is not "out" yet in the MMA scene.  I think this fight will be closer than most think.  Although Big Nog is a legend of the sport, Frank Mir beat Big Nog once before in 2008 at UFC 92.  Both Nogueira and Mir have been putting up some wins lately.  And while Mir's win over Cro Cop was rather boring, he also beat Roy "I can only win using the Crucifix position" Nelson.

However, Big Nog has been looking great lately.  He looked superb in his recent win over Brandon Schaub.  Even though he was knocked out by Cain Velasquez, I think Big Nog is going to show everyone that he's also not done in this sport.

This is another tough fight for me to call.  I think Big Nog's striking has looked better than Mir's as of recently, and I'm sure that Big Nog's BJJ slightly better than Mir's as well.  I think Mir's best chance is to wrestle and ground and pound but I don't think Big Nog is going to let that happen this time.

Big Nog

Andy's pick: 

(LHW Bout)  Tito "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" vs. Antônio Rogério "Minotoro" Nogueira (Lil' Nog)

What?  I thought Nogueira was fighting Mir!?  That's right.... he is.  But his twin brother "Lil' Nog" is fighting Ortiz on the same card in a weight class below.  Minotauro and Minotoro on the same card.  I think Ryan Bader took Tito Ortiz for granted, and Tito got lucky.

That said, Lil' Nog (who got a gift decision win over Jason Brilz) should be able to take Ortiz out.  Lil' Nog has better striking (on paper) and his BJJ is way better than Ortiz.  Unless Ortiz is able to take Lil' Nog down and ground and pound him, I don't see Ortiz winning this.  Oh, unless Lil' Nog does the same thing Bader did and look passed Ortiz.  But..... F--- Tito.

Lil' Nog

Andy's pick: 

(WW Bout)  Claude "The Prince" Patrick vs. Brian Ebersole

Admittedly, I am not a follower of either of these fighters.  So this one I'm going to have to pick based on records and such.  What fights I have seen of these fighters hasn't shown me much in the way of how I think this fight may or may not go. 

Claude Patrick is an up-and-coming Canadian prospect with a record of 14-1.  Most of his wins (9) coming by way of submission and most of those submissions by way of Guillotine Choke.  He obviously has some skills with BJJ.

Brian Ebersole boasts a record of 48-14-1 (1 NC).  The experience advantage clearly goes to Ebersole.  One interesting note is that of his 14 losses, 9 of them have been by submission.  However, of his 48 wins, 20 of them have been by submission as well.

We have an interesting matchup.  One has the momentum of being on a 13 fight win streak, the other has a sizeable experience advantage.  Coin toss for me, I think I'm going to go with the experience factor this time instead of the hype.  As for when and how it ends?  That's anyone's guess in my opinion.

Brian Ebersole

Andy's pick: 

(FW Bout)  Mark Hominick vs. Chan "The Korean Zombie" Sung Jung

The Hominick Hematoma

Even though Hominick lost to Jose Aldo, he was able to take Aldo 5 rounds which is something only Urijah Faber and Kenny Florian have been able to do.  Aldo may have given Hominick a massive hematoma, but Hominick's lasting power should not be questioned.

The Korean Zombie is best known in the U.S. for putting on some great fights.  His two fights against Leonard Garcia are absolutely legendary.  If you haven't seen them, please go find them online and check them out.

I think this should be a great fight.  Both fighters will come to bring it, but I believe Hominick is going to get the knock out sometime in the first or second round.  Expect it to be a great fight regardless how long it goes.

Mark Hominick

Andy's pick: 


Preliminary Card 

(LHW Bout) Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Igor Pokrajac

Andy's pick:   Krzysztof Soszynski 

(MW Bout) Jared Hamman vs. Constantinos Philippou

Andy's pick: Jared Hamman 

(LW Bout) John Makdessi vs. Dennis Hallman

Andy's pick: John Makdessi 

(BW Bout) Yves Jabouin vs. Walel Watson

Andy's pick: Yves Jabouin 

(LW Bout)  Mark Bocek vs. Nik Lentz

Andy's pick: Mark Bocek 

(WW Bout) Rich Attonito vs. Jake Hecht 

Andy's pick: Jake Hecht 

(LW Bout) Mitch Clarke vs. John Cholish 

Andy's pick: John Cholish

That's it.  As usual comments are welcomed and usually responded to.  I'd love to hear what you guys think about these matchups. 


--Andy

UFC 136 Predictions

It's fight week and we have UFC 136 this weekend only two weeks after 135.  And how did I do on my predictions for 135?  Well, to be frank, not so well in my opinion.  I was great on the under card with 4-1, but I shit the bed on the main card with a 2-3 record.  That puts me at 6-4 for the entire event.

Andy's grade for UFC 135:    D

Let's see if I can't redeem myself for UFC 136.  Like last time, I'll be adding explanations of my picks for the main card only, and just giving you my picks for the under card.  So, let's get this party started!

Main Card

Main Event

(LW Championship) Champion Frankie "The Answer" Edgar vs. Gray Maynard

A possible fourth fight for a rubber match?  This is by far one of the toughest fights for me to call.  Gray Maynard stands undefeated at 10-0-1 (1 NC) while Edgar has only one blemish on his 13-1-1 record.  That lone loss comes from Maynard's unanimous decision win over Edgar back in 2008 on a free UFC Fight Night card on SpikeTV.  Side Note:  That was also the night we saw James Irvin's 8-second KO of Houston Alexander which positively blew my mind.

Three and a half years and one more controversial fight between the two later, and we have a rematch of the title fight that ended in a draw last time.  I've heard people criticize Maynard for putting up a lot of lackluster decision wins.  Eight of his ten wins have come via decision but many of Edgar's wins have also come via decision.  That didn't stop the last fight from being exciting as all hell.

I feel that both fighters aren't going to make the same mistakes they made in the last title fight, so all that remains to me is the question of what changes should they make for this time around?  For me, I think the biggest key will be aggressiveness.  The fighter that is able to keep the pressure and push the pace wins this fight by decision.  That's right, I said decision.  Even though Maynard almost stopped Edgar in the first round, you'll notice Edgar rallied back and got the draw.

What about Maynard's wrestling ability?  Edgar was prepared for it last time, and Edgar is one tough son of a bitch to take down.  He always pops right back up.  Wrestling is something Edgar had prepared for.  He hadn't prepared for Maynard's right hook that floored him.

Things will be different this time.  Edgar will take nothing for granted, and Maynard is going to have a hell of a fight on his hands, but he seems to always come up with something that catches Edgar off-guard.  Almost like Maynard has Edgar's number...... Almost.   This fight ends in another VERY VERY close split decision win.  And I do believe we'll get an actual winner this time.

Andy's pick: 

Co-Main Event

(FW Championship) Champion José Aldo vs. Kenny "KenFlo" Florian

We all know Kenny Florian as the Middleweight runner-up on The Ultimate Fighter season 1.  Losing to Diego Sanchez (back when he really WAS "the Nightmare") was nothing to be ashamed of, and Kenny almost immediately dropped two weight classes to Lightweight since losing the show.  From then on, he literally fought almost everyone in the Lightweight division.  Now having dropped to Featherweight and having only one fight to his credit in this weight class, he gets a chance to take on a man whose literally taken the WEC and UFC by storm.

With a record of 19-1, Aldo's 12 (T)KO wins tell a tale of extreme violence.  At WEC 44, Aldo took the belt from Mike Thomas Brown and hasn't slowed a minute since.  His first defense would come against perennial contender Urijah Faber.  For anyone who saw this fight, you had to be wincing in pain every time Aldo threw that leg kick from the second round on.  By the third round, Faber seemed to be having trouble just standing.  I was amazed to see Faber even answer the bell by the fifth.  Here was some amazing proof that leg kicks absolutely do count in a fight.  (F--- you, Cecil Peoples!)

Now there has apparently been a video released online, either for the hype surrounding this fight or for some other reason, that shows Aldo complaining about cutting weight to 145 lbs. to make fighting weight.  The video apparently shows him being resistant to re-entering a bath tub filled with a special salt solution (or something) that aids in the weight cutting process but also gives your body the feeling that your skin is burning.

I have heard people say that this is proof that the weight cut is too much for Aldo, whose said himself that he'll eventually not want to cut weight to Featherweight in the future, and that this process of weight cutting will cause him to slow down or make him feel too dehydrated.  However, I've heard it takes Kenny a long time to cut weight properly also and the weight cut hasn't affected Aldo's capacity for dealing insane violence yet, so I'll reserve judgement on the weight cutting implications until I've seen Aldo look bad in a fight.

What does all of this mean for the Aldo/Florian matchup?  Not a whole hell of a lot.  Florian always comes to fight with some slick Brazilian Jiu-jitsu and improving stand up game and Aldo's been on top of his game for quite a while in the Featherweight division with an aggressive attack style that seems to put everyone on their heels.

Florian's best chance is to get Aldo on his back and do what he does best, ground and pound with those sharp ass elbows.  Maybe he can cut Aldo and get the stoppage, maybe he can pull off a slick submission, but Aldo has a black belt in BJJ as well.

I like Florian, but he's the kind of fighter who loses only to the top guys.  Gray Maynard, B.J. Penn, and Sean Sherk are all guys who've beat Florian in the past.  And come this weekend, I believe we'll be able to add Aldo to this list.  Aldo either by (T)KO in the championship rounds, or by unanimous decision.

Andy's pick:  

(MW Bout) Chael Sonnen vs. Brian Stann

Did you know that Chael Sonnen was an NCAA Division I wrestler?  Did you know that Sonnen was also an Olympic alternate for the U.S. in wrestling?  Of course not!  All anyone knows of Chael Sonnen is that he's an Oregonian politician who was involved in a money laundering real estate mortgage fraud scam that runs his mouth about  everyone and who literally dominated Anderson Silva for 24 minutes before getting caught in a triangle choke in the last minute.

Brian Stann has reinvented his career since dropping from Light Heavyweight to Middleweight and has taken on the moniker of "the All-American" most likely due to his military service career in the Marine Corps.  With a background of submission wrestling, Brazilian Jiu-jitsu, and American Kickboxing to his credit, Stann now fights for Greg Jackson's camp.

In my last blog, I mentioned that I believe this fight should be a fight that has serious title shot implications.  I believe the winner of this match is in a much better position to ask for a title shot with Anderson Silva than the Miller/Bisping matchup.  Dana, however, told the press that if Dan Henderson wins his fight against Shogun Rua that he'd consider Dan Henderson a front runner for a title shot further proving that I clearly have no gift for setting up title fight matchups.  This makes no sense to me considering Dan Henderson is fighting at Light Heavyweight right now.  Fuck Dana, you kill me with all this shit sometimes, but I digress.

Sonnen will do what Sonnen does... try to outwrestle Brian Stann.  I believe this will not work out for him against Stann as it did for him against Anderson Silva.  Stann will either use his wrestling defensively to keep this fight standing up and hoping his Kickboxing sees him through, or will try to use his BJJ to submit Sonnen.  In any case, I'm going to go with Stann on this matchup as I see his momentum and time with the Jackson training camps paying off to a decision win.

Andy's pick: 

(LW bout) Joe "J-Lau" Lauzon vs. Melvin "the Young Assassin" Guillard

Simply put, Melvin Guillard has been on an absolute tear recently.  But Joe Lauzon is a submission specialist and almost all of Guillard's losses have come via submission.  I'll be rooting for Guillard in this fight, but I don't think even Greg Jackson's training will be able to help Guillard if "J-Lau" weathers the storm, gets in close, and gets the fight to the ground.  Classic grappler vs. striker fight and I think recently it seems that the grapplers win these matchups.

Andy's pick:

(FW Bout)  Leonard Garcia vs. Nam Phan

If you're not familiar with who Leonard Garcia is, please do yourself a favor and watch this kid's WEC fights online somewhere.  I've been watching this kid fight since his loss to Roger Huerta in 2007.  Since then, I can't recall a single fight with Leonard Garcia where I thought, "Well, this was boring".  In his last five fights, Garcia has picked up three Fight of the Night bonuses.  One of those bonuses came against his current opponent Nam Phan on The Ultimate Fighter finale almost a year ago.

Nam Phan, on paper, should have this fight hands down.  A black belt in Karate and in BJJ, Phan seems to have the upper hand in this matchup.  And although I haven't seen many of Nam Phan's fights, he has lost to Garcia's relentless attack style before.

To date, Garcia has recently lost to ex-champion Mike Thomas Brown, and title contenders Manny Gamburyan and Mark Hominick as well as a man known as "The Korean Zombie" in another Fight of the Night exciting matchup.  Phan, however, has lost to virtually anyone whose "known" in the fight game.  Michihiro Omigawa, Josh Thomson, Gesias "JZ Calvan" Cavalcante, Billy Evangelista, Mike Thomas Brown, and even Leonard Garcia himself have all gotten wins against Phan.

What does all this mean?  Phan has the tools and the skills to win a lot of fights and could conceivably be a great fighter except he's already 28 years old and, like Jorge Gurgel, he doesn't seem to be able to transition his very notable skills into actual fighting.  I see this fight going a lot like the first.  Phan will put up a fight, but Garcia comes to put it in Phan's face once again.  I think Garcia wins this by decision again.  I just hope it's as exciting as their last fight together.

Andy's pick:


Preliminary Card

(MW Bout) Demian Maia vs. Jorge Santiago

Andy's pick:  Demian Maia

(LW Bout)  Anthony Pettis vs. Jeremy Stephens

Andy's pick:  Anthony Pettis

(HW Bout) Joey Beltran vs. Stipe Miocic

<sup>Andy's pick:  Joey Beltran

(FW Bout) Zhang Tie Quan vs. Darren Elkins

Andy's pick:  Zhang Tie Quan

(MW Bout) Aaron Simpson vs. Eric Schafer

Andy's pick:  Aaron Simpson

(MW Bout) Steve Cantwell vs. Mike Massenzio

Andy's pick:  Steve Cantwell</sup> 

So, that's it!  Another set of predictions for this week's UFC 136 show.  I hope I do a lot better this week than I did two weeks ago.  As always, please feel free to comment on my picks and why you think I am right or wrong.  I enjoy writing these things and I hope you enjoy reading them. 

^--Andy

UFC 135 Predictions

I know I said I would blog once a week, and I'm going to continue to stick with that when it comes to blogging my opinions and feelings about things, but I've decided I may also add new blogs during the week when it comes to fight predictions.  Seeing as how I've just brought this blog online this week, we'll begin fight predictions for UFC 135 along with my thoughts as to how I see the fight playing out or why I believe fighter "A" will beat fighter "B", etc.

Please, please feel free to comment on these "prediction blogs" as I call them and let me know your predictions as well.  In fact, I'd love to know your thoughts on how you see the fights going down or tell me why you think my predictions are wrong.

My main focus and effort will be on the main card fights but I will include my preliminary card picks as well  just without all the banter.  If you want to know why I picked any prelim fighters over another, just comment and I'll reply.

And now, on to the predictions.

Main Card

Main Event

(LHW Championship) Champion Jon "Bones" Jones vs. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson

Athleticism vs. a puncher's chance.  Jon Jones's meteoric rise through the UFC is legendary, and Rampage is the kind of fighter who seems to have lost his hunger from his Pride days.  I think Shogun Rua had a better chance to beat Jones than Rampage does although Rampage still has the KO power to deliver the "upset" and regain his former title, I don't think Jon Jones is the kind of fighter to look passed Rampage and allow Rampage to get that upset.  Jones's superior athleticism and relentless attack style will prove to be too much for Rampage who gets embarassed and stopped in the early-mid first round by Bones by (T)KO.

Andy's pick:

Co-main Event

(WW Bout) Matt Hughes vs. Josh Koscheck

Age or experience plays a factor?  Both fighters have very good wrestling pedigrees.  UFC Hall of Famer, Matt Hughes boasts a very impressive 45-8 record while Josh Koscheck's record is 15-5 with his best (and most talked about) win coming against Paul "sucker puncher" Daley.  Josh(34 this Nov.) is 4 years younger than Hughes(38 this Oct.).  In the fight game, as we all know, age can sometimes play a factor.  Hughes has talked about retirement a number of times before and after recent fights, and Koscheck represents the last fight on his contract with the UFC.  One thing is sure, that unless Hughes is getting knocked the f--- out by B.J. Penn in 21 seconds, you can expect Hughes to never give up and be able to go the distance.  I think Koscheck will want to keep this fight standing and I think Hughes will want to employ a ground and pound technique here.  Even though I hate Koscheck immensely, I can see either fighter winning by split decision.  This is a coin-flip fight for me and seeing as how I hate Koscheck, I'll be picking Hughes for the win.

Andy's pick:  

(HW Bout) Travis Browne vs. Rob Broughton

Classic striker vs. grappler match-up.  Undefeated HW prospect Travis Browne takes on English grappler Rob Broughton.  To date, Browne just had his most notable win of his career against Stefan Struve accompanied by a Knockout of the Night bonus.  Broughton's most notable win is against James Thompson.  While you might believe Broughton is simply going to take Browne down and submit him, Browne is also a Purple Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.  Broughton's only chance is to use his wrestling to take down Browne, stand up, rinse and repeat as I don't think he's going to want to stand and bang with Browne whose got 9 wins out of 11 by (T)KO.  I see Browne getting taken down but working for submissions constantly off his back.  Should his gas tank hold out, I see Browne winning by submission in the third or by unanimous decision.

Andy's pick: 

(LW Bout) Nate Diaz vs. Takanori "Fireball Kid" Gomi

An inconsistant match-up.  Nate Diaz's best win comes from Melvin Guillard back in 2009 before Guillard had "reinvented himself".  Gomi is the Pride legend whose fought a veritable "who's who" in the sport.  From B.J. Penn, Krazy Horse, Hellboy Hansen, Jens Pulver, to "Mach" Sakurai, Kenny Florian, Tyson Griffin, and Clay Guida.  Gomi has won and lost to some of the best.  Diaz brings a brown belt in one of the most notable BJJ schools in the country, Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu.  Unfortunately, he brings little else to the table.  Gomi on the other hand brings a boxing and catch wrestling background.  Both fighters have been inconsistant, losing and winning many of their recent fights, but I believe Gomi's opponents to be much better on the whole.  Diaz will be looking to set up take downs with a few strikes, Gomi will be looking to stuff take downs and keep the fight standing.  We all know the Diaz's are known for taking lots of shots, and Nate is no exception to Nick in this regard.  But we also know that Nate is NOT Nick, and I believe the "Fireball Kid" will be able to keep this fight standing and win via decision.

Andy's pick: 

(HW Bout) "Big" Ben Rothwell vs. Mark Hunt

Game planning for the win here.  Legendary kickboxer Mark Hunt may be "over the hill" when it comes to the fight scene at 37 years of age, and his 6-7 record in MMA is hardly something to boast about but don't sleep on his power.  Hunt has a record of 30-17 in Kickboxing and he has the power to knock people out as he did against Chris Tucscherer just this passed Feb. earning him a knockout of the night award.  Unfortunately, Hunt also suffers from a poor gas tank and if he can't knock out Rothwell in the first round, it's not going to happen.  Rothwell needs to weather the early storm and look for the take down.  With a wrestling and boxing background, it shouldn't be hard for Rothwell to duck under a punch and get a take down.  From there, it's only a matter of time.  I expect the former IFL fighter to be hesitant until the second round when he's got Hunt's timing down and goes for the take down and submission.  Big Ben wins in the second by submission.  Ben only loses this by poor game planning and looking to get into a brawl with Hunt.

Andy's pick: 

Preliminary Card

(LW Bout) Tony "El Cucuy" Ferguson vs. Aaron Riley


Andy's pick:  "El Cucuy" (What the f--- is a cucuy?)

(MW Bout) Nick Ring vs. Tim Boetsch

Andy's pick: Tim Boetsch

(FW Bout) Junior Assunção vs. Eddie Yagin

Andy's pick: Junior Assunção

(BW Bout) Takeya Mizugaki vs. Cole Escovedo 

Andy's pick: Takeya Mizugaki 

(LHW Bout) James Te Huna vs. Ricardo Romero

Andy's pick:  Ricardo Romero