#6: Brock Lesnar's legacy, other MMA fans, and Alistair's plan.

Let's cut the bullshit huh folks?  Really?  I've spent the last couple of days reading nothing but posts, blogs, and articles about how Brock Lesnar needs to be considered one of the "greats" of the UFC Heavyweight division.  Let's seriously cut the crap folks.

Fact: Lesnar brought a seriously insane wrestling pedigree to the UFC organzation but was unable to evolve his striking and/or grappling pedigree to the levels needed to sustain himself as a top contender in the UFC.

Look, it's painfully obvious that Brock's best bet to beat anyone was to take them down and ground and pound them into the mat.  I even gave Brock this benefit of the doubt to fight Overeem.

We all know that Overeem had never fought someone with the wrestling pedigree that Brock had, and had Brock pressed the takedown angles even after Overeem had stuffed the first one, I think Brock could have been able to still take Overeem down.....

However, Brock DIDN'T keep trying to take Overeem down, he simply gave up after Overeem stuffed the first one.  Why?  I can only conclude that the real reason Brock didn't continually try to keep taking Overeem down is because Brock isn't a "real MMA fighter" in his heart.

A real MMA fighter would have realized that his best bet against Overeem was to keep to the wrestling and to keep trying to take him down.... over and over and over again until he finally did so and then start the ground and pound.

It's easy for me to say this because I'm on the outside looking in, I don't have to fight to make a living and I'm not Brock Lesnar....  I'm just saying that if I was... and I had to fight Alistair Overeem, my goal is to try and take him down, over... and over.... and over.

Brock however, didn't try after the first attempt, and once he felt the power of Overeem's knees and kicks to the body, I think Brock wasn't sure what to do.

Now, I don't want to bash Brock too much.  One of the things I really have to give Brock credit for, is that he seemed to be improving EVERY time I saw him in the octagon.  Though he wasn't a striker, he had serious power in his punches.  Though he wasn't a "black belt in jiu-jitsu", he was able to submit Carwin with an arm triangle.

There are a number of reasons for why Brock probably shouldn't have retired from the UFC, but I'm glad he did.  His age, along with his inability to take a solid shot from people who had real punching power, just says to me that Brock wasn't long for this sport.... and with only 8 professional fights on his record at his age, I don't think many people were expecting Brock to be the biggest name in the UFC for long.

Let's put Brock where he really should be.  Was he truly the "Baddest man on the planet"?  Not really.  Should Brock be included into the UFC hall of fame?  If you want to add a category for PPV buys, maybe.... but if you want to take Brock for his fighting prowess?  I'd say no.  A 5-3 record where he can't hang with the top contenders of the division?  There's simply no reason to include him as one of the best HW's in the UFC.

Also, I've been reading a lot of fan criticism about Alistair Overeem's performance against Brock.  Some people saying that it's not fair that Overeem knew of Brock's Divirticulitis and resorted to knee'ing and kicking Brock in the mid-section to exploit that fact.

I'm sorry, but it you were getting ready to fight someone, and they came out publicly to say they had some sort of illness or injury beforehand.... Wouldn't you, as a fighter, try to exploit that weakness to get that win?!

Also, I'm not convinced that was Alistair's strategy ANYWAY.... Overeem wanted to punish and strike with Lesnar as much as possible... that's no secret.  So when he got the chance, he struck Lesnar where he could.  He got the clinch, and threw a ton of knees and kicks.  What do you expect?

I don't know... sometimes when I read the responses of other MMA fans, I have to wonder really how old they are, because it seems to me that their opinions are completely one-dimensional and devoid of any true thought process.  It's like they take the simplest reason and use it as the end-all-be-all for something.

--Andy

UFC 140 predictions

Hello.... I've missed a number of UFC events since my last prediction post but I'm going to bring it back with one of the cards I've been truly excited for since I thought GSP and Nick Diaz were going to fight.  So let's get right into it.  My last prediction card was UFC 136.  And how did I do there?  Well, I went 5-6 for the night. 

Andy's grade for UFC 136:  D-

Well, clearly I suck at predicting fights.  Or, maybe it's just proof that anyone can win on any given night. (I like that excuse a lot more than me just sucking at picking fights. )  But, let's continue on with predictions anyway.

Main Card

Main Event

(LHW Championship) Champion Jon "Bones" Jones vs. Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida

What can I say about this fight?  This is a complete win/win for me.  I've been a Machida fan since I saw him fight Sam Hoger at UFC 67 and I've been a Jon Jones fan since I saw him beat Stephan Bonnar at UFC 94.  If I could pick any one person in the UFC light-heavyweight division that I'd like to see beat Jon Jones, it's Lyoto Machida.  However there's something about Jon Jones and his ability to embarass everyone, even Shogun, that makes me want to see Jones never lose.  Machida is a great fighter but Jones has this athleticism that seems no one has an answer for.

Machida is more of a counter-puncher while Jones can be both aggressive and be a counter-puncher.  This will make for one hell of a fight, but a fight I don't see Machida winning.  Jones needs to be put on his heels.  He needs to have his rhythm interrupted, you can't let Jones set the pace by being super aggressive.  Sadly, that is not how Machida fights.  Could he beat Jones?  I believe so if he fought completely different from how he fights now.  Will he do that?  I don't believe so at all.  Jones wins this in convincing fashion sometime in the first three rounds.  I don't think we'll see this go into the championship rounds at all.

Jon Jones

Andy's pick: 

(HW Bout)  Frank Mir vs. Antônio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira (Big Nog)

Don't let casual MMA fans fool you.  Frank Mir is not "out" yet in the MMA scene.  I think this fight will be closer than most think.  Although Big Nog is a legend of the sport, Frank Mir beat Big Nog once before in 2008 at UFC 92.  Both Nogueira and Mir have been putting up some wins lately.  And while Mir's win over Cro Cop was rather boring, he also beat Roy "I can only win using the Crucifix position" Nelson.

However, Big Nog has been looking great lately.  He looked superb in his recent win over Brandon Schaub.  Even though he was knocked out by Cain Velasquez, I think Big Nog is going to show everyone that he's also not done in this sport.

This is another tough fight for me to call.  I think Big Nog's striking has looked better than Mir's as of recently, and I'm sure that Big Nog's BJJ slightly better than Mir's as well.  I think Mir's best chance is to wrestle and ground and pound but I don't think Big Nog is going to let that happen this time.

Big Nog

Andy's pick: 

(LHW Bout)  Tito "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" vs. Antônio Rogério "Minotoro" Nogueira (Lil' Nog)

What?  I thought Nogueira was fighting Mir!?  That's right.... he is.  But his twin brother "Lil' Nog" is fighting Ortiz on the same card in a weight class below.  Minotauro and Minotoro on the same card.  I think Ryan Bader took Tito Ortiz for granted, and Tito got lucky.

That said, Lil' Nog (who got a gift decision win over Jason Brilz) should be able to take Ortiz out.  Lil' Nog has better striking (on paper) and his BJJ is way better than Ortiz.  Unless Ortiz is able to take Lil' Nog down and ground and pound him, I don't see Ortiz winning this.  Oh, unless Lil' Nog does the same thing Bader did and look passed Ortiz.  But..... F--- Tito.

Lil' Nog

Andy's pick: 

(WW Bout)  Claude "The Prince" Patrick vs. Brian Ebersole

Admittedly, I am not a follower of either of these fighters.  So this one I'm going to have to pick based on records and such.  What fights I have seen of these fighters hasn't shown me much in the way of how I think this fight may or may not go. 

Claude Patrick is an up-and-coming Canadian prospect with a record of 14-1.  Most of his wins (9) coming by way of submission and most of those submissions by way of Guillotine Choke.  He obviously has some skills with BJJ.

Brian Ebersole boasts a record of 48-14-1 (1 NC).  The experience advantage clearly goes to Ebersole.  One interesting note is that of his 14 losses, 9 of them have been by submission.  However, of his 48 wins, 20 of them have been by submission as well.

We have an interesting matchup.  One has the momentum of being on a 13 fight win streak, the other has a sizeable experience advantage.  Coin toss for me, I think I'm going to go with the experience factor this time instead of the hype.  As for when and how it ends?  That's anyone's guess in my opinion.

Brian Ebersole

Andy's pick: 

(FW Bout)  Mark Hominick vs. Chan "The Korean Zombie" Sung Jung

The Hominick Hematoma

Even though Hominick lost to Jose Aldo, he was able to take Aldo 5 rounds which is something only Urijah Faber and Kenny Florian have been able to do.  Aldo may have given Hominick a massive hematoma, but Hominick's lasting power should not be questioned.

The Korean Zombie is best known in the U.S. for putting on some great fights.  His two fights against Leonard Garcia are absolutely legendary.  If you haven't seen them, please go find them online and check them out.

I think this should be a great fight.  Both fighters will come to bring it, but I believe Hominick is going to get the knock out sometime in the first or second round.  Expect it to be a great fight regardless how long it goes.

Mark Hominick

Andy's pick: 


Preliminary Card 

(LHW Bout) Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Igor Pokrajac

Andy's pick:   Krzysztof Soszynski 

(MW Bout) Jared Hamman vs. Constantinos Philippou

Andy's pick: Jared Hamman 

(LW Bout) John Makdessi vs. Dennis Hallman

Andy's pick: John Makdessi 

(BW Bout) Yves Jabouin vs. Walel Watson

Andy's pick: Yves Jabouin 

(LW Bout)  Mark Bocek vs. Nik Lentz

Andy's pick: Mark Bocek 

(WW Bout) Rich Attonito vs. Jake Hecht 

Andy's pick: Jake Hecht 

(LW Bout) Mitch Clarke vs. John Cholish 

Andy's pick: John Cholish

That's it.  As usual comments are welcomed and usually responded to.  I'd love to hear what you guys think about these matchups. 


--Andy

#5: Is Fedor still worth $30?

I think it's been four weeks since I last wrote in the blog, and I'm sorry to everyone that it has taken so long, but now I'm back with another something to say.

For anyone whose watched MMA for a little while now, you certainly know who Fedor Emelianenko is.  If not, you need to go back and watch Fedor's fights in PrideFC.  Fedor is best known for his ability to fight opponents at their own strengths and beating them, despite the weight differences.

What's also amazing about Fedor, was the fact that he was able to amass an amazing 32-1 record in MMA in the Heavyweight division being one of the smallest Heavyweights (around 215-220 lbs) and doing it all in stoic fashion.  It's no wonder that Emelianenko was considered the best Heavyweight on the planet and was also considered one of the sports pound-for-pound best fighters on the planet.

But this is either here, nor there.  Since his win over Brett Rogers in 2009, Emelianenko has gone 0-3 against opponents Fabricio Werdum, Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva, and now Dan Henderson.  The last fight being the one that apparently caused Dana White to announce that Emelianenko was being cut from the Strikeforce roster.

So what happened?  The man dominated the Heavyweight division for over eleven plus years and all of a sudden can't seem to find a win in the past two to three years.  Is Emelianenko "passed his prime" in the sport?  It eventually happens to everyone at some point but Emelianenko is only 35 years old.  Anderson Silva is almost 37 years old himself and seems to be unbeatable.

I believe the issue with Emelianenko isn't that he's passed his prime, it's a two-fold issue with Emelianenko fighting people who are more well-rounded in addition to his lack of game planning.  In a sport that has evolved so many times in the past five to six years alone, we are seeing a talented fighter struggling because of his inability to evolve with it.

Emelianenko's background is in a martial art known as Combat Sambo.  Sambo has roots that go back to Japanese Judo with traditional folk wrestling.  There are a few styles, but Combat Sambo is a form of Sambo used by the Russian military.  Because of his Sambo and Boxing background, Emelianenko was able to beat many of MMA's earliest Heavyweight fighters as most of them came from one style or another.  Emelianenko was one of the first Heavyweights to be more well-rounded than others.

Unfortunately, he hasn't continued this evolution.  He's relied on his Combat Sambo and boxing background too much and not stepped up his game in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu or other fighting styles.  What we have now is BJJ black belts submitting him in sixty seconds, we have fighters that are forty pounds heavier than him that have both boxing and BJJ skills sitting on top of him and pounding him into the mat, and we even had a Light Heavyweight fighter with great wrestling and one punch knockout power take Emelianenko out with a punch.

So, is it Emelianenko to blame?  All things considered, I haven't seen much change in Emelianenko's talent, speed, or abilities.  It's hard to gauge Emelianenko's "hunger" or "drive" to win fights with the stoicism he constantly displays.  It's clear to me he wants to continue to win fights, but he isn't.  I believe the issue here is his training camp and his trainers.  As stated earlier, the issue I believe is two-fold and it starts with his trainers.

One, they never bring in anyone to help step Emelianenko's game up.  If it's one thing about this sport, it's that you have to constantly be training with people who are better than you in different aspects.  You may be a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but there's always another black belt who can catch you in a submission, and you need to constantly be rolling with people like this in order to keep your reflexes sharp and quick.  Twitch reflex is what I believe it's called, and it has to be constantly tested in order to keep it "inherent" in your body's muscles.  If your opponent grabs your leg to push it down to try and get the mount, you need to know exactly what to do and which way to move in order to stop it.

Two, his trainers are too complacent with Emelianenko's desires.  They don't seem to be pushing Emelianenko or driving him to be a better fighter.  They don't sit down and watch tapes of his opponents to decide what's the best way to attack them.  They simply train as they always have and then throw Emelianenko to the wolves and say, "Go get 'em tiger".  Then hope for the best.

Emelianenko remains stoic, however, he thanks God with every fight and says that if it's God's will that he wins again, he will win again.  Sorry, but if it's one thing I've learned with my 34 years on this planet, it's that you can't wait for someone to decide what to do for you, even if it's God.

So what's next for Emelianenko now?  Jeff Monson.  Yep, the "Snowman" himself.  What's even worse about this, is that Emelianenko won't even be fighting for Strikeforce on Showtime.  Instead, we're told that M-1 Global is going to make Emelianenko/Monson a thirty dollar Pay-Per-View event.  Jeff Monson is a good fighter with an very good record of his own, but Monson is also over 40 years old and in the twilight of his MMA career.

Would you pay thirty dollars to see a 40 year old man take on a Heavyweight legend that's lost every single fight in the last three years?  No.  We're waiting for Emelianenko to take on and win against fighters that are relevant to today.  No offense to Monson, but he's simply not relevant in the sport today and people aren't excited to pay their hard earned cash to see Emelianenko fight him.  This is simply one more faux pas in the M-1 Global chain of horribly bad decisions, but that's another rant, for another time on this blog.

Fedor, there are millions of fans like myself that simply want to see you back to your winning ways.  They want to see you fight relevant fighters in the UFC HW division like Lesnar, Velasquez, dos Santos, and even Overeem.  Maybe it's time you stopped worrying about what God is going to grant you, and start worrying about how you can win fights on your own.

MMA fans won't be buying the PPV in droves.  The only fight worth watching is the main event, and it's simply not worth $30.  Emelianenko simply needs to start winning, he needs to start training with fighters and trainers who specialize in martial arts that are winning fights today.  He needs to push himself, he needs to evolve, and he needs to surround himself with trainers and fighters that are willing to push him harder.  Until that time, Emelianenko may remain irrelevant to the Heavyweight division, and with little time left considering his age.

--Andy

#4: Alistair Overeem. Why should you care?

Alistair who?  If you've been a casual fan and only watched UFC events, you've likely never heard of Alistair Overeem.  With his matchup against Brock Lesnar looming closer and closer and due to Brock's popularity within the WWE and UFC, it may be easy for you to dismiss Alistair's chances of winning, but nothing could be further from the truth.

Allow me to explain who Alistair is and why we should all be absolutely excited as all hell that he's making his way to the UFC.  Alistair spent most of his MMA career fighting in the 205 lb. Light Heavyweight division fighting for a Dutch kickboxing team known as Golden Glory.  Golden Glory has managed or trained notable Kickboxing and MMA fighters such as Semmy Schilt, Gegard Mousasi, Gokhan Saki, Errol Zimmerman, Marloes Coenen, and Sergei Kharitonov who was the last man to beat Alistair Overeem in MMA.

Early MMA Career

After going 4-3 early in his MMA career, Alistair then went on a twelve fight win streak before entering Pride Fighting Championships "Total Elimination" tournament in 2003.  He fought in Pride's Middleweight Grand Prix.  (In PrideFC, the 205 lb. division was called their "Middleweight" division, don't let it fool you)  At the time, PrideFC and the UFC were just beginning their very heated rivalry.  PrideFC's president, Nobuyuki Sakakibara, and UFC president Dana White would publicly discuss how their fighters were better than each others.

To prove the point, Sakakibara challenged Dana White to send one of his fighters over to Japan to compete in the 2003 Total Elimination tournament.  Dana accepted, and in the Quarterfinal matchups, PrideFC's Alistair Overeem fought the UFC's Chuck Liddell.  Liddell would ultimately prove the winner of this matchup but the exciting fight made an impression on MMA fans everywhere.

From Obscurity to PrideFC Notable

Despite his loss to Liddell, Overeem won another couple of fights outside of Pride before returning to Pride and winning a fight against Hiromitsu Kanehara.  After the Kanehara fight, Pride would begin matching Overeem up with everyone they had in the 205 lb. division except for Wanderlei Silva.  Overeem would spend the next three years from Heavyweight to Light Heavyweight fighting people like, Antonio "Lil' Nog" Nogueira, Igor Vovchanchyn, Vitor Belfort, Ricardo Arona, Fabricio Werdum, Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, and Sergei Kharitonov.  He'd win some and lose some, ultimately PrideFC would fold and Overeem would end his Pride career on a 3-fight skid losing to Lil' Nog, Ricardo Arona, and Shogun Rua in his last three Pride fights.

It was at this time that Overeem became known to MMA fans as "the best first round fighter you're likely to see" as most of his fights never went passed the first or second round.  He was known for gassing out after the first, but usually winning the first round unless he was stopped.

Full Time Heavyweight

After PrideFC folded shop and was sold to the UFC in 2007, Overeem decided to move to Heavyweight full time.  At the time, his mother was battling a form of cancer, Overeem owned and ran a Dutch Newspaper company, and felt that cutting weight in the midst of all that was going on and not being able to focus on MMA was ruining his career.

Overeem would re-focus his career as a full time Heavyweight and took an MMA Rules fight at a K-1 event against Michael Knaap who he would defeat by Guillotine Choke in the first.  Overeem would then lose against dangerous Russian striker Sergei Kharitonov by KO in the first round.

A Man Reinvented

After his loss to Kharitonov, Overeem was picked up by Scott Coker's MMA organization known as Strikeforce.  Coker matched Overeem against UFC veteran Paul "the Headhunter" Buentello for the vacant Strikeforce Heavyweight belt.  Overeem would smash Buentello in the second and win using the Thai Clinch and kneeing Buentello in the gut repeatedly and become Strikeforce's first, and so far only, Heavyweight Champion.

From PrideFC's demise, some of the executives paired up with Fighting and Entertainment Group (FEG) to create a new Japanese MMA organization known as Dream.  FEG, which also owns K-1 (the most notable kickboxing organization in the world right now), hoped to use their new organization Dream to recapture some of PrideFC's nostalgia and look to regain some MMA fanaticism in Japan.

What better way to try and accomplish that then by re-employing many of the PrideFC fighters that made Pride so great?  Kazushi Sakuraba, Hayato Sakurai, Ikuhisa Minowa, Bob Sapp, Alistair Overeem, and many others began fighting for Dream.  Overeem grabbed another couple of wins, one against K-1 legend Mark Hunt.

The Evolution Continues

After his win over Mark Hunt at Dream 5, and working closely with Dream's parent company FEG who also owns K-1, it wasn't long before Overeem turned his attention to K-1.  This new attention came in the form of one K-1 Kickboxer in particular, a fighter named Badr Hari.  Hari had just come from a controversial loss in K-1 to another K-1 legend, Remy Bonjasky.  Despite dominating Bonjasky the first round, Hari would lose his chance at winning the Grand Prix by illegally kicking Bonjasky in the face while Bonjasky was on the ground.  Hari is considered the "bad boy" of K-1, and although extremely skilled in fighting, seems to have issue with keeping his emotions in check and is very impulsive in fights.

Badr Hari contested that MMA wasn't a big deal, and that Overeem himself (who had a small Kickboxing record) wouldn't be able to hang in K-1.  Overeem flashed back by saying Hari was running his mouth about a sport he knew nothing about.  Eventually Overeem threw down the challenge gauntlet.  "I'll fight you in a K-1 bout if you fight me in an MMA fight afterward", Overeem would tell Hari.

Hari agreed to the stipulation, and Overeem and Hari met in FEG's "Dynamite!! 2008" event where Overeem knocked Hari out cold in 2:07 of the first round.  Weeks afterward, Overeem would again challenge Hari to an MMA fight as was agreed upon, but Hari refused to uphold his end of the bargain and said that he wouldn't fight Overeem in an MMA event.

The bad blood between the two persisted but it sparked a renewed interest in K-1 for Overeem who lost his next K-1 fight against Remy Bonjasky.  Overeem was then asked to compete in the 2009 K-1 World Grand Prix.  He would win the qualifier fight against another K-1 legend Peter Aerts and his Quarterfinal fight against Ewerton Teixeira which ended in a brutal, brutal KO by knee.

This would set up the rematch in the Semifinal that everyone couldn't wait to see.  Badr Hari and Overeem in the 2009 Grand Prix Semifinals.  Hari would finally get the better of Overeem who just couldn't get Hari's timing down before Hari would knock Overeem down twice in the first round forcing a referee stoppage.  Though it's listed as a "KO" win, Overeem was never knocked out like Hari had been in their first meeting.

This loss, however, sparked a fire within Overeem who decided that he needed to not only be an MMA champion but also a K-1 champion as well.

A Champion Realized and a Return to Strikeforce

During his stint in K-1 in 2008-2009, Overeem was also active in MMA.  He fought Mirko CroCop receiving his first No Contest, and won fights against James Thompson, Tony Sylvester, Gary Goodridge, and another brutal KO by knee against massive Japanese fighter Kazuyuki Fujita in FEG's "Dynamite!! 2009" show.

It was at this time that Overeem was becoming well known among MMA fans as having one of the nastiest knee strikes in the fighting game.  So well known in fact, that fans began calling it the "Uberknee" and claiming that even if you blocked an "Uberknee", you were still hurt.  Also at this time, Overeem began receiving a ton of nasty comments about his lack of fighting in Strikeforce and not defending his Strikeforce HW belt.

Coker would come to Overeem's defense and explain that even though Overeem hadn't defended the belt once in three years, it was because Coker had no one for Overeem to fight during that time.  However, that would change as Brett Rogers because Overeem's first title contender after Rogers had gotten his first professional loss to Fedor Emelianenko.

Coker would then receive criticism for giving Rogers a chance at the belt after losing to Fedor.  But it's not like Fedor would have accepted a fight against Overeem.  But that's another story, for another time.  I could probably fill two blog entries with the drama between Overeem and Fedor.

Overeem would manhandle Rogers in the first round and win by TKO.  Afterwards, Overeem claimed he would focus a lot more on MMA.  Despite his promise, Overeem was expected to fight Fedor Emelianenko for his next title defense.  When those plans fell through, Overeem returned to K-1 and entered the 2010 K-1 World Grand Prix.  This time, however, Overeem would win the entire event.

Now Overeem would hold the Strikeforce HW belt, and a K-1 WGP Championship as well.  In his speech after winning the World Grand Prix Overeem stated that he wanted FEG to include him in the "Dynamite!! 2010" show which was less than half a month away AND that he wanted FEG to make it a title fight as well.

Less than twenty days later, Overeem would get his wish, sort of.  Dream would match Overeem up against ex-UFC fighter Todd Duffee in a bout that would serve as the Interim HW Championship.  After eating a few "Uberknees" to the solarplexus in the very first 10 seconds of the first round, Overeem would drop Duffee with a left hook that put him on the mat.  The referee would step in at 19 seconds of the first round and Overeem realized his goal of holding two MMA belts and a K-1 championship at the same time.

Overeem's next important milestone would come when would enter the first ever Strikeforce HW Grand Prix tournament.  Overeem's first opponent would be against a man who beat him years ago in Pride, Fabricio Werdum.  The fight would become an absolute mockery of combat sports.  While Overeem circled and looked for the knockout punch, Werdum would simply fall to his back and beg Overeem to come to the ground with him.  It was an absolute joke, and probably one of the worst fights I had seen since Anderson Silva took on Demian Maia.  Overeem emerged the victor, however, and avenged his earlier loss to Werdum.

Overeem's UFC Future

So here we have it.  You have an understanding for who Overeem is a little better, I hope.  And now you can see why I am so excited to have Overeem face Brock Lesnar as his first UFC debut.  There are some things I think are really important about the skill sets both bring to the table in this matchup.

Although Overeem is famous for his Uberknee and his K-1 striking, his BJJ seems to be overlooked and underrated these days.  Most of Overeem's wins have come via submission, and I think people tend to forget that.  However, Overeem's wrestling defense as far as I know has never been stellar and even though he's faced a few wrestlers before, they've never really pushed the wrestling aspect on Overeem or tried to use it on him.

Lesnar, on the other hand, is steeped in wrestling.  Many detractors would say Lesnar is a one-dimensional fighter relying only on wrestling.  Certainly it's true that Lesnar's background is in wrestling, but what is also important is that Lesnar has been getting better and better at other aspects as well.  He's knocked down a few opponents while standing up, and he even showed off some BJJ skills when he submitted Shane Carwin in the second round by arm triangle.

Lesnar will be the first person to face Overeem who will probably use his NCAA Division 1 wrestling pedigree almost exclusively.  Overeem tends to overwhelm his opponents with his plodding massive size, but Lesnar is just as big if not bigger looking than Overeem so this will be an interesting matchup to see how Overeem can deal with Lesnar's explosive wrestling.

Overeem is definitely one of my favorite fighters and I believe he can tool Lesnar in every department, except wrestling.  Unfortunately, in the UFC where wrestlers and take downs seem to be counted heavier than any other aspect of MMA, I think Overeem will have to rely on his BJJ and work off his back because I don't think Overeem will be able to stop Lesnar's take downs.

It will be a super fight that will answer whether or not Alistair Overeem truly deserves to be ranked as a top 5 HW fighter as he is now or does Overeem need to evolve further and work on defensive wrestling in order to reach that next goal of his....... to become UFC champion.

--Andy

UFC 136 Predictions

It's fight week and we have UFC 136 this weekend only two weeks after 135.  And how did I do on my predictions for 135?  Well, to be frank, not so well in my opinion.  I was great on the under card with 4-1, but I shit the bed on the main card with a 2-3 record.  That puts me at 6-4 for the entire event.

Andy's grade for UFC 135:    D

Let's see if I can't redeem myself for UFC 136.  Like last time, I'll be adding explanations of my picks for the main card only, and just giving you my picks for the under card.  So, let's get this party started!

Main Card

Main Event

(LW Championship) Champion Frankie "The Answer" Edgar vs. Gray Maynard

A possible fourth fight for a rubber match?  This is by far one of the toughest fights for me to call.  Gray Maynard stands undefeated at 10-0-1 (1 NC) while Edgar has only one blemish on his 13-1-1 record.  That lone loss comes from Maynard's unanimous decision win over Edgar back in 2008 on a free UFC Fight Night card on SpikeTV.  Side Note:  That was also the night we saw James Irvin's 8-second KO of Houston Alexander which positively blew my mind.

Three and a half years and one more controversial fight between the two later, and we have a rematch of the title fight that ended in a draw last time.  I've heard people criticize Maynard for putting up a lot of lackluster decision wins.  Eight of his ten wins have come via decision but many of Edgar's wins have also come via decision.  That didn't stop the last fight from being exciting as all hell.

I feel that both fighters aren't going to make the same mistakes they made in the last title fight, so all that remains to me is the question of what changes should they make for this time around?  For me, I think the biggest key will be aggressiveness.  The fighter that is able to keep the pressure and push the pace wins this fight by decision.  That's right, I said decision.  Even though Maynard almost stopped Edgar in the first round, you'll notice Edgar rallied back and got the draw.

What about Maynard's wrestling ability?  Edgar was prepared for it last time, and Edgar is one tough son of a bitch to take down.  He always pops right back up.  Wrestling is something Edgar had prepared for.  He hadn't prepared for Maynard's right hook that floored him.

Things will be different this time.  Edgar will take nothing for granted, and Maynard is going to have a hell of a fight on his hands, but he seems to always come up with something that catches Edgar off-guard.  Almost like Maynard has Edgar's number...... Almost.   This fight ends in another VERY VERY close split decision win.  And I do believe we'll get an actual winner this time.

Andy's pick: 

Co-Main Event

(FW Championship) Champion José Aldo vs. Kenny "KenFlo" Florian

We all know Kenny Florian as the Middleweight runner-up on The Ultimate Fighter season 1.  Losing to Diego Sanchez (back when he really WAS "the Nightmare") was nothing to be ashamed of, and Kenny almost immediately dropped two weight classes to Lightweight since losing the show.  From then on, he literally fought almost everyone in the Lightweight division.  Now having dropped to Featherweight and having only one fight to his credit in this weight class, he gets a chance to take on a man whose literally taken the WEC and UFC by storm.

With a record of 19-1, Aldo's 12 (T)KO wins tell a tale of extreme violence.  At WEC 44, Aldo took the belt from Mike Thomas Brown and hasn't slowed a minute since.  His first defense would come against perennial contender Urijah Faber.  For anyone who saw this fight, you had to be wincing in pain every time Aldo threw that leg kick from the second round on.  By the third round, Faber seemed to be having trouble just standing.  I was amazed to see Faber even answer the bell by the fifth.  Here was some amazing proof that leg kicks absolutely do count in a fight.  (F--- you, Cecil Peoples!)

Now there has apparently been a video released online, either for the hype surrounding this fight or for some other reason, that shows Aldo complaining about cutting weight to 145 lbs. to make fighting weight.  The video apparently shows him being resistant to re-entering a bath tub filled with a special salt solution (or something) that aids in the weight cutting process but also gives your body the feeling that your skin is burning.

I have heard people say that this is proof that the weight cut is too much for Aldo, whose said himself that he'll eventually not want to cut weight to Featherweight in the future, and that this process of weight cutting will cause him to slow down or make him feel too dehydrated.  However, I've heard it takes Kenny a long time to cut weight properly also and the weight cut hasn't affected Aldo's capacity for dealing insane violence yet, so I'll reserve judgement on the weight cutting implications until I've seen Aldo look bad in a fight.

What does all of this mean for the Aldo/Florian matchup?  Not a whole hell of a lot.  Florian always comes to fight with some slick Brazilian Jiu-jitsu and improving stand up game and Aldo's been on top of his game for quite a while in the Featherweight division with an aggressive attack style that seems to put everyone on their heels.

Florian's best chance is to get Aldo on his back and do what he does best, ground and pound with those sharp ass elbows.  Maybe he can cut Aldo and get the stoppage, maybe he can pull off a slick submission, but Aldo has a black belt in BJJ as well.

I like Florian, but he's the kind of fighter who loses only to the top guys.  Gray Maynard, B.J. Penn, and Sean Sherk are all guys who've beat Florian in the past.  And come this weekend, I believe we'll be able to add Aldo to this list.  Aldo either by (T)KO in the championship rounds, or by unanimous decision.

Andy's pick:  

(MW Bout) Chael Sonnen vs. Brian Stann

Did you know that Chael Sonnen was an NCAA Division I wrestler?  Did you know that Sonnen was also an Olympic alternate for the U.S. in wrestling?  Of course not!  All anyone knows of Chael Sonnen is that he's an Oregonian politician who was involved in a money laundering real estate mortgage fraud scam that runs his mouth about  everyone and who literally dominated Anderson Silva for 24 minutes before getting caught in a triangle choke in the last minute.

Brian Stann has reinvented his career since dropping from Light Heavyweight to Middleweight and has taken on the moniker of "the All-American" most likely due to his military service career in the Marine Corps.  With a background of submission wrestling, Brazilian Jiu-jitsu, and American Kickboxing to his credit, Stann now fights for Greg Jackson's camp.

In my last blog, I mentioned that I believe this fight should be a fight that has serious title shot implications.  I believe the winner of this match is in a much better position to ask for a title shot with Anderson Silva than the Miller/Bisping matchup.  Dana, however, told the press that if Dan Henderson wins his fight against Shogun Rua that he'd consider Dan Henderson a front runner for a title shot further proving that I clearly have no gift for setting up title fight matchups.  This makes no sense to me considering Dan Henderson is fighting at Light Heavyweight right now.  Fuck Dana, you kill me with all this shit sometimes, but I digress.

Sonnen will do what Sonnen does... try to outwrestle Brian Stann.  I believe this will not work out for him against Stann as it did for him against Anderson Silva.  Stann will either use his wrestling defensively to keep this fight standing up and hoping his Kickboxing sees him through, or will try to use his BJJ to submit Sonnen.  In any case, I'm going to go with Stann on this matchup as I see his momentum and time with the Jackson training camps paying off to a decision win.

Andy's pick: 

(LW bout) Joe "J-Lau" Lauzon vs. Melvin "the Young Assassin" Guillard

Simply put, Melvin Guillard has been on an absolute tear recently.  But Joe Lauzon is a submission specialist and almost all of Guillard's losses have come via submission.  I'll be rooting for Guillard in this fight, but I don't think even Greg Jackson's training will be able to help Guillard if "J-Lau" weathers the storm, gets in close, and gets the fight to the ground.  Classic grappler vs. striker fight and I think recently it seems that the grapplers win these matchups.

Andy's pick:

(FW Bout)  Leonard Garcia vs. Nam Phan

If you're not familiar with who Leonard Garcia is, please do yourself a favor and watch this kid's WEC fights online somewhere.  I've been watching this kid fight since his loss to Roger Huerta in 2007.  Since then, I can't recall a single fight with Leonard Garcia where I thought, "Well, this was boring".  In his last five fights, Garcia has picked up three Fight of the Night bonuses.  One of those bonuses came against his current opponent Nam Phan on The Ultimate Fighter finale almost a year ago.

Nam Phan, on paper, should have this fight hands down.  A black belt in Karate and in BJJ, Phan seems to have the upper hand in this matchup.  And although I haven't seen many of Nam Phan's fights, he has lost to Garcia's relentless attack style before.

To date, Garcia has recently lost to ex-champion Mike Thomas Brown, and title contenders Manny Gamburyan and Mark Hominick as well as a man known as "The Korean Zombie" in another Fight of the Night exciting matchup.  Phan, however, has lost to virtually anyone whose "known" in the fight game.  Michihiro Omigawa, Josh Thomson, Gesias "JZ Calvan" Cavalcante, Billy Evangelista, Mike Thomas Brown, and even Leonard Garcia himself have all gotten wins against Phan.

What does all this mean?  Phan has the tools and the skills to win a lot of fights and could conceivably be a great fighter except he's already 28 years old and, like Jorge Gurgel, he doesn't seem to be able to transition his very notable skills into actual fighting.  I see this fight going a lot like the first.  Phan will put up a fight, but Garcia comes to put it in Phan's face once again.  I think Garcia wins this by decision again.  I just hope it's as exciting as their last fight together.

Andy's pick:


Preliminary Card

(MW Bout) Demian Maia vs. Jorge Santiago

Andy's pick:  Demian Maia

(LW Bout)  Anthony Pettis vs. Jeremy Stephens

Andy's pick:  Anthony Pettis

(HW Bout) Joey Beltran vs. Stipe Miocic

<sup>Andy's pick:  Joey Beltran

(FW Bout) Zhang Tie Quan vs. Darren Elkins

Andy's pick:  Zhang Tie Quan

(MW Bout) Aaron Simpson vs. Eric Schafer

Andy's pick:  Aaron Simpson

(MW Bout) Steve Cantwell vs. Mike Massenzio

Andy's pick:  Steve Cantwell</sup> 

So, that's it!  Another set of predictions for this week's UFC 136 show.  I hope I do a lot better this week than I did two weeks ago.  As always, please feel free to comment on my picks and why you think I am right or wrong.  I enjoy writing these things and I hope you enjoy reading them. 

^--Andy

#3: The Anderson Silva dilmena

What are Dana White and Joe Silva going to do with this guy?  He's breaking records, breaking opponents, widely regarded as the number 1 pound for pound fighter on the planet, and doing it all at 36 years of age in (for the most part) dramatic and exciting fashion.

Thales Leites (which wasn't Silva's fault), and Demian Maia (which WAS Silva's fault) fights aside, Anderson Silva is one of the most exciting fighters to watch.  When most fighters are taking a look at their MMA career and deciding when to retire, Silva appears to be in his prime and just getting better.

So, what's next for Silva?  What fighters could POSSIBLY be matched up against him?

Well, for one, I believe the winner of Stann/Sonnen should get the next chance.  We all watched Sonnen dominate Silva for 24 minutes before the last minute triangle choke, but I believe Stann is beginning to find his stride as well.  And should Stann get by Sonnen, I think he should get the shot at Silva.

What about Miller/Bisping?  Should the winner of that fight get the next shot at Silva?  The Stann/Sonnen fight comes a couple months before Miller/Bisping, so in the interest of keeping Silva active faster, I'd say the winner of Sonnen/Stann should get next shot with Miller/Bisping being next.

Finally, if you've read my last blog post about the Gracie camp, I'd say Shields needs to head back up to 185 and do what he does best.  If he can get some quality wins over big name Middleweights, I'd like to see him go up against Anderson Silva.  He may just pull off what Sonnen couldn't.

And that's about it for MW matchups that I can think of for Anderson Silva.  What can he do after that?  Of course there's the super fight between him and GSP.  But I am going to say something that may just blow ALL of your minds.  I do not want to see this matchup, atleast not until either GSP or Anderson Silva loses to another fighter first.

It's simple to me, both fighters are so dominant and are widely considered the number 1 and 2 pound for pound fighters on the planet.  While the money the UFC would make would be insane, I'd hate to see either fighter's win streaks tarnished because of the other.  If Anderson wins, it's because he's a naturally bigger fighter than GSP, and if GSP wins, it's because Anderson couldn't handle the weight cut.  Either way, one of them loses, and it's going to suck for fans of both fighters.

I'd much rather see Anderson Silva jump back up to 205 and take on Jon Jones.

Think about how that fight would play out.

--Andy

#2: Gracie camp. What's the deal?

As we all know, Royce revolutionized the MMA scene when he dominated a little known organization known as the UFC in their first few events.  No one knew the power of Brazilian Jiu-jitsu when Royce burst on the scene putting both BJJ and the Gracie name forever into MMA history.

Throughout the years, many other Gracies would come and go in the MMA scene.  Most recently, Ralek and Roger.  But the Gracie camp in the San Francisco Bay Area would also produce a cadre of notable fighters without the Gracie last name.  These fighters would single handedly dominate 3 of the 5 weight classes in the Strikeforce organization.  Gilbert Melendez, Nick Diaz, and Jake Shields cornered the Lightweight, Welterweight, and Middleweight divisions in Strikeforce.  That is.... until the UFC bought out Strikeforce.

In 2010, after almost getting absolutely knocked out cold in the first round, Jake Shields rallied back and took Dan Henderson to a decision win in one of the most important victories of his career to retain his Middleweight title.  He would then vacate the title for a move down to Welterweight and a title eliminator shot against UFC top contender Martin Kampmann. 

We all know what happened.  Shields won against Kampmann and then looked like a fish out of water against Georges St. Pierre.  Whatever, it happens.  St. Pierre is one of the ultimate "Game Planners" in the sport.  Don't believe me?  Just ask Josh Koscheck how good he looked against St. Pierre.  Certainly no one can blame Shields for putting on a lackluster display against one of the pound for pound greats like St. Pierre.

But Nick Diaz would change all that, right?.  Like Shields, he too would vacate his Strikeforce Welterweight belt for a chance at Georges St. Pierre after submitting the BJJ blackbelt Evangelista Santos and following that by doing the unthinkable in TKO'ing dangerous striker Paul Daley.  Of all the fighters GSP has faced and defended his belt against, Nick Diaz was the one guy I gave the best chance to snapping GSP's streak.  In fact, I believe Diaz's BJJ is better than GSP's, I think his striking is on par or better than GSP's, and I felt GSP's best chance to beat Diaz would be to wrestle him down, get up, rinse and repeat.

But... Diaz blew it.  Why?  Who knows.  Diaz/GSP was to be one of maybe 3 super fights I'd hoped I'd get to see in my lifetime but Diaz chose to fuck it up.  Diaz is still one of my favorite fighters, but I'm seriously less than thrilled for Diaz/Penn and even less excited for GSP/Condit.  Not that Condit isn't a great fighter or doesn't have a puncher's chance, or Penn having a chance to beat Diaz, but I digress.  Even though I know this isn't the case, not showing up to a couple of press conferences made it look as though Diaz was scared to fight GSP.

Finally, we have Jake Shields's last outing against Jake Ellenberger.  I realize Shields had just lost his Dad, and I certainly wish his family the best during this difficult time of grieving, but getting the second TKO of his career to Ellenberger makes me believe that 170 may not be his division.  I think he needs to stay at 185.  Maybe it was the weight cut, maybe it was his Dad weighing on his mind, but losing in 53 seconds to Ellenberger whose best win at that time had been John Howard was rather embarassing for a former and dominant MW champ like Shields.

So what's the deal, Cesar?  Is Shields in the wrong weight class?  Why can't anyone find Diaz for some press conferences?  There are so many questions that I would love to ask.  Cesar himself blasted Diaz publicly for his no-shows and even went so far as to say Diaz disrespected the sport, and the Cesar Gracie camp for his actions.

It seems as though we're beginning to see an unraveling of the Gracie camp.  I hope I'm wrong, but these things have happened before.  There was a time when Greg Jackson's camp seemed to dominate the UFC while the Gracie camp dominated Strikeforce.... Now we're seeing AKA step it up. (Cain, Luke Rockhold)  It makes me wonder what's going on over there at Gracie Jiu-jitsu.  I hope it's just a bump in the road.

Oh, and Gilbert?  You rock bro.

--Andy