Please, please feel free to comment on these "prediction blogs" as I call them and let me know your predictions as well. In fact, I'd love to know your thoughts on how you see the fights going down or tell me why you think my predictions are wrong.
My main focus and effort will be on the main card fights but I will include my preliminary card picks as well just without all the banter. If you want to know why I picked any prelim fighters over another, just comment and I'll reply.
And now, on to the predictions.
Main Card
Main Event
(LHW Championship) Champion Jon "Bones" Jones vs. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson
Athleticism vs. a puncher's chance. Jon Jones's meteoric rise through the UFC is legendary, and Rampage is the kind of fighter who seems to have lost his hunger from his Pride days. I think Shogun Rua had a better chance to beat Jones than Rampage does although Rampage still has the KO power to deliver the "upset" and regain his former title, I don't think Jon Jones is the kind of fighter to look passed Rampage and allow Rampage to get that upset. Jones's superior athleticism and relentless attack style will prove to be too much for Rampage who gets embarassed and stopped in the early-mid first round by Bones by (T)KO.
Co-main Event
(WW Bout) Matt Hughes vs. Josh Koscheck
Age or experience plays a factor? Both fighters have very good wrestling pedigrees. UFC Hall of Famer, Matt Hughes boasts a very impressive 45-8 record while Josh Koscheck's record is 15-5 with his best (and most talked about) win coming against Paul "sucker puncher" Daley. Josh(34 this Nov.) is 4 years younger than Hughes(38 this Oct.). In the fight game, as we all know, age can sometimes play a factor. Hughes has talked about retirement a number of times before and after recent fights, and Koscheck represents the last fight on his contract with the UFC. One thing is sure, that unless Hughes is getting knocked the f--- out by B.J. Penn in 21 seconds, you can expect Hughes to never give up and be able to go the distance. I think Koscheck will want to keep this fight standing and I think Hughes will want to employ a ground and pound technique here. Even though I hate Koscheck immensely, I can see either fighter winning by split decision. This is a coin-flip fight for me and seeing as how I hate Koscheck, I'll be picking Hughes for the win.
(HW Bout) Travis Browne vs. Rob Broughton
Classic striker vs. grappler match-up. Undefeated HW prospect Travis Browne takes on English grappler Rob Broughton. To date, Browne just had his most notable win of his career against Stefan Struve accompanied by a Knockout of the Night bonus. Broughton's most notable win is against James Thompson. While you might believe Broughton is simply going to take Browne down and submit him, Browne is also a Purple Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Broughton's only chance is to use his wrestling to take down Browne, stand up, rinse and repeat as I don't think he's going to want to stand and bang with Browne whose got 9 wins out of 11 by (T)KO. I see Browne getting taken down but working for submissions constantly off his back. Should his gas tank hold out, I see Browne winning by submission in the third or by unanimous decision.
(LW Bout) Nate Diaz vs. Takanori "Fireball Kid" Gomi
An inconsistant match-up. Nate Diaz's best win comes from Melvin Guillard back in 2009 before Guillard had "reinvented himself". Gomi is the Pride legend whose fought a veritable "who's who" in the sport. From B.J. Penn, Krazy Horse, Hellboy Hansen, Jens Pulver, to "Mach" Sakurai, Kenny Florian, Tyson Griffin, and Clay Guida. Gomi has won and lost to some of the best. Diaz brings a brown belt in one of the most notable BJJ schools in the country, Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu. Unfortunately, he brings little else to the table. Gomi on the other hand brings a boxing and catch wrestling background. Both fighters have been inconsistant, losing and winning many of their recent fights, but I believe Gomi's opponents to be much better on the whole. Diaz will be looking to set up take downs with a few strikes, Gomi will be looking to stuff take downs and keep the fight standing. We all know the Diaz's are known for taking lots of shots, and Nate is no exception to Nick in this regard. But we also know that Nate is NOT Nick, and I believe the "Fireball Kid" will be able to keep this fight standing and win via decision.
(HW Bout) "Big" Ben Rothwell vs. Mark Hunt
Game planning for the win here. Legendary kickboxer Mark Hunt may be "over the hill" when it comes to the fight scene at 37 years of age, and his 6-7 record in MMA is hardly something to boast about but don't sleep on his power. Hunt has a record of 30-17 in Kickboxing and he has the power to knock people out as he did against Chris Tucscherer just this passed Feb. earning him a knockout of the night award. Unfortunately, Hunt also suffers from a poor gas tank and if he can't knock out Rothwell in the first round, it's not going to happen. Rothwell needs to weather the early storm and look for the take down. With a wrestling and boxing background, it shouldn't be hard for Rothwell to duck under a punch and get a take down. From there, it's only a matter of time. I expect the former IFL fighter to be hesitant until the second round when he's got Hunt's timing down and goes for the take down and submission. Big Ben wins in the second by submission. Ben only loses this by poor game planning and looking to get into a brawl with Hunt.
Preliminary Card
(LW Bout) Tony "El Cucuy" Ferguson vs. Aaron Riley
Andy's pick: "El Cucuy" (What the f--- is a cucuy?)
(MW Bout) Nick Ring vs. Tim Boetsch
Andy's pick: Tim Boetsch
(FW Bout) Junior Assunção vs. Eddie Yagin
Andy's pick: Junior Assunção
(BW Bout) Takeya Mizugaki vs. Cole Escovedo
Andy's pick: Takeya Mizugaki
(LHW Bout) James Te Huna vs. Ricardo Romero
Andy's pick: Ricardo Romero
You've got some of the same ideas I have.
ReplyDeleteJones over Jackson. I don't see Jones losing his belt for a while.
Koscheck over Hughes. I don't particularly like either fighter much, but Hughes has looked washed out ever since he lost his belt.
Browne over Broughton.
Gomi over Diaz. Diaz only seems to be able to win against fighters smaller than him, and there aren't that many of those around.
Rothwell over Hunt. It's Ben's fight to lose.
Like I said, the Kos/Hughes fight is really tough for me to call, but I don't know how you can say Hughes has "looked washed out". Nothing about a 45-8 record screams, "washed out", to me.
ReplyDeleteWell, those 45 wins don't just disappear. Unfortunately, those 45 wins were mostly before he lost the belt. And a lot of them were to cans.
ReplyDeleteI'm not saying Hughes isn't good. I'm just saying he isn't the top tier fighter he used to be. He's pretty much well been "Randy Couture'd".
Not a top tier fighter? He was going to be considered the number 1 contender if he had beaten B.J. Penn.... I don't care much for Hughes per se, but I'm not sure how you can say Hughes can't be considered a top tier fighter. He only loses to top tier fighters.
ReplyDeleteJones...check
ReplyDeleteKoscheck...check
Browne...check
Gomi...damn. I should have invoked my "always bet against the asian" rule.
Rothwell...damn. He played right into Hunt's strength. Admittedly, Hunt has much improved grappling defense from his previous fights.